{"id":9821,"date":"2020-04-06T16:26:53","date_gmt":"2020-04-06T15:26:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/?p=9821"},"modified":"2020-09-19T12:02:05","modified_gmt":"2020-09-19T11:02:05","slug":"limit-the-wip-virus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/limit-the-wip-virus\/","title":{"rendered":"Let&#8217;s limit the WIP of this f* virus!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>People who work with agile methods are used to visual kanban boards and how to manage them to improve workflow.<\/p>\n<p>For example the kanban board below:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-9822\" src=\"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2020\/04\/sample-kanban-todo-doing-done-300x210.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"210\" srcset=\"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2020\/04\/sample-kanban-todo-doing-done-300x210.jpg 300w, https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2020\/04\/sample-kanban-todo-doing-done.jpg 442w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>To do<\/strong> &#8211; all items that need to be worked on<\/li>\n<li><strong>Doing<\/strong> &#8211; items we are currently under work<\/li>\n<li><strong>Done<\/strong> &#8211; items we have already completed the work<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>There is a diagram that we use to understand and act in improving the workflow. This is the cumulative flow diagram, or CFD for short.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-4889\" src=\"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2015\/06\/cfd-todo-doing-done-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2015\/06\/cfd-todo-doing-done-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2015\/06\/cfd-todo-doing-done.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>In the CFD we are able to visualize some parameters about the workflow<\/strong>. We are able to visualize the correlation between the number of items being worked on and the time they take in the Doing stage.<\/p>\n<p>The <strong>number of items being worked on (itens in the Doing stage) is called WIP, short for Work In Progress<\/strong>. Whereas <strong>the time elapsed by an item in the Doing stage is called the Lead time<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>You can see both parameters \u2014 WIP and Lead time \u2014 in the CFD.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1619\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1619\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1619\" src=\"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2015\/06\/cfd-wip-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2015\/06\/cfd-wip-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2015\/06\/cfd-wip.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-1619\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">WIP on the CFD<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"attachment_1620\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1620\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1620\" src=\"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2015\/06\/cfd-leadtime-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2015\/06\/cfd-leadtime-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2015\/06\/cfd-leadtime.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-1620\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">lead time on the CFD<\/p><\/div>\n<p><strong>WIP is proportional to the average lead time<\/strong>. In other words, the higher the WIP, the greater the average lead time. This correlation is called <strong>Little&#8217;s Law<\/strong> (this correlation was described by <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/John_Little_%28academic%29\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">John Little in 1961<\/a>). <strong>This correlation is visible at the CFD<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1627\" src=\"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2015\/06\/cfd-little-law-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2015\/06\/cfd-little-law-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2015\/06\/cfd-little-law.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In agile projects, we pay close attention to this correlation. <strong>We want to deliver fast. For this, we limit WIP to reduce the average lead time.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Now, instead of thinking about a visual kanban for work itens, let&#8217;s think about a visual kanban about the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n<p>Instead of the To Do -&gt; Doing -&gt; Done stages, consider the following stages for the COVID-19 flow:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Never been infected -&gt; Infected and Infecting others -&gt; Already had and is no longer infected<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Where:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Never been infected<\/strong> &#8211; it is the entire population that has not yet been infected.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Infected and infecting others<\/strong> &#8211; it is the population that already has the virus, whether they know about it or not. It is people who may be infecting others, until they are no longer with the virus.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Already had and is no longer infected<\/strong> &#8211; it is people who have had the virus and no longer have it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Below I share the CFD charts for two scenarios: the first with effective social isolation from week 7 and the second with effective isolation from week 3.<\/p>\n<p>I am not an expert on COVID-19, but I describe below the considerations made to generate the graphs for both scenarios:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Consider that 4 weeks after the person is infected, the person does not infect anymore, that is, the person moves from the <strong>Infected and infecting others<\/strong> stage to the <strong>Already had and is no longer infected<\/strong> stage.<\/li>\n<li>Consider a condominium of houses with a total population of 200 inhabitants.<\/li>\n<li>Consider that the expansion of the virus is exponential until isolation occurs; that is, if in week 1 there are 2 cases, in week 2 there will be 4 cases, in week 3 there will be 8 cases, and so on.<\/li>\n<li>Consider that once the isolation occurs, there are no more new cases, that is, there are no more people going from the <strong>Never been infected<\/strong> stage to the <strong>Infected and Infecting others<\/strong> stage.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Scenario 1 &#8211; effective isolation from week 7<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Week &#8211; Never been infected &#8211; Infected and infecting others &#8211; Already had and is no longer infected<\/strong><\/p>\n<table width=\"418\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"100\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"77\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"63\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 1<\/td>\n<td>199<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 2<\/td>\n<td>198<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 3<\/td>\n<td>196<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 4<\/td>\n<td>192<\/td>\n<td>8<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 5<\/td>\n<td>184<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 6<\/td>\n<td>168<\/td>\n<td>30<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>week 7<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>136<\/td>\n<td>60<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 8<\/td>\n<td>136<\/td>\n<td>56<\/td>\n<td>8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 9<\/td>\n<td>136<\/td>\n<td>49<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 10<\/td>\n<td>136<\/td>\n<td>34<\/td>\n<td>30<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-9709\" src=\"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2020\/03\/cfd-cov19-sem7-300x206.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"206\" srcset=\"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2020\/03\/cfd-cov19-sem7-300x206.jpg 300w, https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2020\/03\/cfd-cov19-sem7.jpg 569w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In the graph, the blue area shows, week by week, the number of people in the <strong>Never got infected<\/strong> stage; the brown area, the number of people in the <strong>Infected and infecting others<\/strong> stage. The gray area depicts the number of people in the <strong>Already had and is no longer infected<\/strong> stage . The blue arrow shows the moment when isolation occurs, after which there are no new cases of infection.<\/p>\n<h3>Scenario 2 &#8211; effective isolation from week 3<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Week &#8211; Never been infected &#8211; Infected and infecting others &#8211; Already had and is no longer infected<\/strong><\/p>\n<table width=\"462\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"73\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"75\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"56\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"61\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 1<\/td>\n<td>199<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 2<\/td>\n<td>198<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>week 3<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>196<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 4<\/td>\n<td>196<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 5<\/td>\n<td>195<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 6<\/td>\n<td>198<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 7<\/td>\n<td>196<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 8<\/td>\n<td>196<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 9<\/td>\n<td>196<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>week 10<\/td>\n<td>196<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-9710\" src=\"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2020\/03\/cfd-cov19-sem3-300x202.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"202\" srcset=\"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2020\/03\/cfd-cov19-sem3-300x202.jpg 300w, https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2020\/03\/cfd-cov19-sem3.jpg 573w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>If you are not familiar with agile methods, I don&#8217;t expect you to understand the theory behind this example and the CFD, but I imagine that you recognise very different results in the two graphs depending on when the WIP limit starts (blue arrow in the images above). I hope I have helped you to understand that, with social isolation, we limit WIP.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>The lower the WIP (number of people currently infected and infecting others), the less time we have to get through this pandemic period.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>WARNING: I am not a doctor, virologist, politician or economist. I&#8217;m just an agile specialist sharing about the CFD. This post is not intended to encourage, defend and \/ or go against any point about medicine, politics or economics.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>[content_block id=10773 slug=cfd-en]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>People who work with agile methods are used to visual kanban boards and how to manage them to improve workflow. For example the kanban board below: To do &#8211; all items that need to be worked on Doing &#8211; items we are currently under work Done &#8211; items we have already completed the work There [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9709,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2114],"tags":[],"inception_activities":[],"colaboradores":[],"class_list":["post-9821","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kanban-en"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9821","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9821"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9821\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9709"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9821"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9821"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9821"},{"taxonomy":"inception_activities","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/inception_activities?post=9821"},{"taxonomy":"colaboradores","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/caroli.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/colaboradores?post=9821"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}